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Clayton Cramer's BLOG |
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Clayton's commentary on news and events of the day. Broadly speaking, I'm a conservative with libertarian sympathies (getting more conservative as my children get older).
 Never forget! I ran for Idaho state senate in 2008--didn't win I've written a number of history books, as well as scholarly and popular articles, (see my web page).
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Saturday, January 15, 2005
What Makes Evolution a Theory? I've received a number of emails from people who are quite upset that I regard those stickers calling evolution a theory to be sensible. Let me explain why. Hypothesis; theory; fact. Each has a particular meaning in the sciences. Hypothesis is a potential explanation that has little or no evidence behind it. A theory has substantial evidence backing it, and individual parts of the theory may be clearly proven. A fact is something that is clearly proven, by experiment. FACT: Sodium reacts with water to form sodium hydroxide, hydrogen gas, and gobs of heat. This is a fact. I have personally performed this experiment in the Pacific Ocean, when I was young and foolish. If anyone wants to argue the point, we can perform the experiment, repeatedly. I am willing to bet a pretty substantial sum of money that if I do this experiment 10,000 times, I will get the same results, everytime. THEORY: Why does sodium react that way? We have an elaborate theory of chemical bonding to explain how this reaction takes place. Over the last one hundred years, the details of that theory have been continuously refined. We used to believe that electrons were in shells around the atom, with the outermost electron for sodium loosely bound to the atom. Refinements to the theory, driven by quantum theory, have turned this from a belief in a "shell" to a electron cloud. The electron's actual position, if I have followed the debate about this correctly, is really more of a probability function than a place. As one of my chemistry professors pointed out, "We really have no idea what is going on down there at the subatomic level. There could be angels dancing on the heads of pins for all we know. But it's a useful theory for predicting things, and that's what science is all about." (And that's also why Intelligent Design really isn't a scientific theory--how do you predict what an Intelligence is going to do next?) Our current theories of chemical bonding are more than just a wild guess, but they are less certain than a fact. A hundred years hence, our theory of chemical bonding might be substantially what it is today--or it may changed (whoops, "evolved") into something very substantially different. The theory of evolution includes a number of different components. One of those components is the idea of natural selection: that changes in the environment will put some members of the species at a disadvantage to others, and over time, this can alter the gene frequency within a population. Depending on the severity of the disadvantage, it is conceivable that a particular trait may be entirely removed from the gene pool (not just lowered frequency), although this has to be a seriously disadvantageous trait, and still takes many, many generations. Natural selection may not work with some traits, even those with serious disadvantages, if they are not exposed until after breeding. Genetic diseases like Huntington's Chorea persist in the population because the disease not make its first appearance until the person is usually over 35--and they have generally had children. Even genetic defects such as schizophrenia that would seem to be big disadvantages apparently persist because there are advantages that carriers of the gene have: sisters of schizophrenics seem to have higher rates of reproduction than the general population. Bipolar disorder and Ausperger's syndrome in their extreme forms are a serious disadvantage, but in milder forms, they seem to be useful in a number of occupations, and so persist. I don't think that anyone (except for a few deranged, Young Earth Creationists) seriously disputes that natural selection changes gene frequency in a population. We can see natural selection taking place, altering characteristics of species, such as the Industrial Revolution changes in the color of the peppered moth. (This website points out that some of the claims originally made for this, however, are not entirely right.) I have yet to see anyone present evidence of a new species being created by natural selection that we have actually observed become a new species; no surprise, speciation should take tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of generations, and we haven't been looking for this for very long. We can see unnatural selection as well, where humans have bred particular breeds of animals and plants. None of these human breeding experiments, however, have led to different species. Again, there hasn't been the time. Even dogs and wolves successfully interbreed. One of the traditional definitions of species was the ability to produce fertile offspring; by that definition, dogs and wolves aren't really separate species. (There are weird examples such as "ring species" where a series of adjacent subspecies can interbreed, but non-adjacent subspecies are too different to be interbreed. This is evidence in support of the claims of natural selection leading to speciation, but again, it's only evidence, not conclusive proof.) Another component of the theory is that inanimate matter created life through electrochemical or radiochemical process. While there have been some intriguing experiments performed that suggest that this could have taken place, the big leap--from purely inanimate chemicals to self-replicating life forms--has not taken place. Again, time is a problem. It's hard to get research funding for experiments measured in millenia, and even harder to interest scientists in experiments out of which they aren't going to get a publishable paper. An interesting theory, maybe even correct; but it is not fact. Another component is the idea that the enormous diversity of structures represent the same sort of natural selection divergence at the higher taxonomic levels. All that I have read--even by those defending evolution--is that the fossil record is maddenly deficient in the intermediate forms that would establish this as being likely. Evolutionist Stephen Jay Gould played a major part in advancing the theory of punctuated equilibrium to deal with what he openly admits is a major problem: The oldest truth of paleontology proclaimed that the vast majority of species appear fully formed in the fossil record and do not change substantially during the long period of their later existence (average durations for marine invertebrate species may be as high as 5 to 10 million years). In other words, geologically abrupt appearance followed by subsequent stability.The punctuated equilibrium theory seems to me to be a legitimate and sensible answer to the problem of a fossil record that is deficient. But again, it simply points out that evolution has some problems that keep it in the category of theory, not fact. Understanding and embracing this is not just about keeping fundamentalists happy; it is also about keeping the teaching of science honest and accurate. Labels: intelligent design California: Aim High, Girls Yes, girls (excuse me, "pre-women," as feminists would like us to call them) are being encouraged to use their minds to the fullest in California: SAN FRANCISCO - The principal of a Palo Alto middle school may not invite a popular speaker back to an annual career day after he told girls they could earn a good living as strippers.Oh, great. But here's the California aspect of this: But school principal Joseph Di Salvo said Fried may not be back next year.May not be back? Boy, that's a hard choice, isn't it? Friday, January 14, 2005
Broken Hockey Sticks This is not exactly breaking news, but it appears that one of the biggest pieces of evidence to support the claims of anthropogenic (man-caused) global warming--a chart showing temperature changes over the last thousand years popularly known as the "hockey stick," for its shape--seems to have collapsed under careful analysis. This article from October 15, 2004 Technology Review (published by MIT) reports that not only is the underlying data that went into the graph turning out to have some problems, but even the statistical method used to analyze the data turns out to produce trends when fed random data: Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records.Iain Murray of the Competitive Enterprise Institute even goes so far as to call it, "Climate change's Bellesiles?" I think that might be a bit strong. So far, all the evidence suggests honest error, not intentional deception by the scientists who first produced it. Nonetheless, this blows an enormous hole in the claims of global warming. This article over at Tech Central Station points out that a variety of scientific papers are suggesting that the evidence is far less persuasive than the left wants you to believe: Since 1999, several climate researchers have challenged those underlying assumptions for deriving the hockey stick, but with little effect on limiting the hockey stick's use as an illustration purportedly helping prove human induced global warming. Labels: global warming Tne End Of Innocence James Lileks' most recent column has one of those painful moments, where you have to decide whether to tell a child a truth that they really don't need to know yet: We’re still driving. I’m peering through the muddy windshield, looking for a gas station. From the back seat:This is always a hard decision. You never want to lie to your child--but there are ages where they can still be a child, and they don't need to know about how incredibly ugly the world of adults can be. If you live in an incredibly evil place (like the San Francisco Bay Area, the ultimate Blue State), it is hard to keep them sheltered, because the mainstream culture is trying so hard to destroy what little innocence small children have. When we moved out of that pestilent cesspool, radio stations were beginning to run ads for penis enlargement surgery. I mentioned Shrek 2 a while back, and the obligatory homosexually oriented "jokes": the ugly stepsister with a man's voice; Pinocchio wearing women's underwear. It's bad enough that sexual innuendo creeps into cartoons; do we really need sexually perverse content as well in a movie aimed at kids? I'm not sure how old my daughter was--maybe 7 or 8--but she asked why we had so many rifles. I had to tell her about the Holocaust, and the twentieth century's long sequence of similar mass murders. It was painful, but my precocious daughter had reached an age where she could handle knowing some of the ugliness of the world. She took it well. Treasure your child's innocent years as long as you can--and don't knowingly fund Hollywood's campaign to drag every child through the gutter of its sexual perversity and lust for graphic violence. Suddenly, CBS Is Concerned About Terrorists John Lott points out that CBS is suddenly all concerned about the dangers of terrorists getting guns--specifically .50-caliber rifles. Now, CBS News is well-known for the accuracy, care, and even-handedness of their reporting, so I have to presume that there is a real problem there. :-) Still, I do agree that if terrorists decided to use these sort of long range weapons here in the U.S., it could be a big problem. I've fired Barrett Light .50 rifles before, and yes, I would not want al-Qaeda to be armed with these. Of course, I wouldn't want them armed with .22 rifles, either. For the cost of even the cheapest .50 rifles, al-Qaeda could buy 30 .22 rifles, send 30 of their operatives into shopping malls in California, New York, and Wisconsin, probably kill a lot more people, and generate a lot more panic. (I picked those particular states because they have effectively guaranteed that the only armed people in public places will be police officers and criminals.) Even as a sniper weapon (at which the .50-caliber rifles are pretty amazing), as Dr. Lott points out, there's nothing magical about .50-caliber: The link to terrorism supposedly provides a new possible reason to ban 50-caliber rifles. But the decision to demonize these particular guns and not say .475-caliber hunting rifles is completely arbitrary. The difference in width of these bullets is a trivial .025 inches. What's next? Banning .45-caliber pistols? Indeed the whole strategy is to gradually reduce the type of guns that people can own.I guess if the left were consistently showing some concern about terrorism in the United States--say, supporting serious efforts to prevent illegal alien smuggling into the U.S., when we know of high level al-Qaeda members who have entered the country that way--I could at least wonder if CBS was simply not thinking far enough ahead on this. But this is just an attempt by the left to use terrorism as an excuse to advance a foolish and ineffective pipe dream. Thursday, January 13, 2005
What Is The Purpose of a Math Curriculum? Teaching math? You silly person! From a column out of Newton, Massachusetts: The school department was recently forced to publicly admit that the sixth-grade MCAS math scores have steadily declined over the past three years to the point where 32 percent of sixth-graders are now in the "warning" or "needs improvement" category. This means that if we were to attach a letter grade to these sixth-grade MCAS math results it would be a D-plus, with only 68 percent of the students passing. Brown Middle School fared so poorly that it is now subject to be placed under the federal No Child Left Behind Act for failing to keep pace under the minimum "adequate yearly progress guidelines."After explaining that the only socioeconomic change during this period was upward--and that per pupil spending has actually increased, the columnist points to a more likely explanation for the sudden and localized three year decline: So then, after eliminating any potential mitigating factors, what could possibly account for the steady decline in the sixth-grade math MCAS scores?Educating students about the evils of racism? Sounds good to me. But the primary goal of a math curriculum is teaching math. Is this really so difficult of a concept? A friend (a liberal--yes, I have liberal friends) was asked to review a math textbook some years ago. He was disturbed to find that while the authors had put a lot of time and effort into making sure all the children depicted in the book were of the right races, ethnicities, and disabilities, that they had neglected to actually do a good job of teaching math! The perfect textbook for Newton, Massachusetts! Why, when those kids grow up, they won't be able to get decent jobs, but they will know that racism must be holding them back! Of course, a troublemaker might point out that Newton, like all good liberal communities, is an overwhelmingly white (88%), upper middle class community (70% of the homes are owner-occupied), but it sounds like being able to use complex concepts such as averages and percentages is not exactly at the top of the priorities of the school district, anyway. An Act of Man Chuck Colson points out something that should be obvious: The catastrophic tsunami in the Indian Ocean has prompted the greatest international response since the Ethiopian famine of the mid-1980s. As with the Ethiopian crisis, pop stars are front and center. NBC will air a benefit concert this weekend featuring the likes of Elton John, Eric Clapton, and Stevie Wonder. Governments have pledged at least $5.5 billion in assistance, and individuals and corporations have promised an additional $2 billion.As I have previously pointed out, some courageous people on the left have pointed out that a number of countries were reluctant to say anything about genocide in the Sudan, because it would interfere with their oil interests there. Oddly enough, none of them involve Halliburton, George Bush, or Dick Cheney. A Thought Experiment Imagine that Cobb County, Georgia, instead of being told to remove a sticker from biology books that encouraged students to read their biology book "with an open mind, studied carefully and critically considered" had this scenario instead. Someone gives copies of a book denying that the Holocaust took place. Once the librarian becomes aware of their scurrilous content, he pulls them off the shelf. The ACLU, of course, files suit, because this is censorship. The county government decides that, having decided to put these nonsensical books on the shelf, that the correct response is to put a sticker on them warning that the history they contain is inaccurate, and that readers should "study carefully and critically consider the claims made." True, the difference here is that Holocaust denial has no religious significance. But then again, the stickers put on those biology books make no religious claims, either. Suppressing Freedom of Speech The ACLU claims to believe that, The best way to counter obnoxious speech is with more speech. Persuasion, not coercion, is the solution.So what happens with a school district decides that the solution to a disagreement is more speech? Why, the ACLU is on the side of less speech: ATLANTA (AP) - A federal judge Thursday ordered a suburban Atlanta school system to remove stickers from its high school biology textbooks that call evolution "a theory, not a fact," saying the disclaimers are an unconstitutional endorsement of religion.I guess the teachers are responsible for going "wink, wink, nudge, nudge" so that the students will "get it." And notice: the judge and ACLU are the ones on the side of coercion, not persuasion. What Judge Cooper and the ACLU are saying is that any statement that disputes the claims of evolution are automatically a form of religious belief, and therefore not allowed in a public classroom. Heretics, be gone! The stickers were put inside the books' front covers by public school officials in Cobb County in 2002. They read: "This textbook contains material on evolution. Evolution is a theory, not a fact, regarding the origin of living things. This material should be approached with an open mind, studied carefully and critically considered."Boy, what will happen if students are encouraged to consider what they learn "with an open mind, studied carefully and critically considered." All heck could break loose! Next, the students will start listening to demon rock and roll, smoking, and the boys will start trying to get to second base with the girls! They might even register Republican when they turn 18! Once again, the ACLU demonstrates that when it comes to their ahistorical interpretation of the establishment clause, that takes precedence over freedom of speech or freedom of religious expression. Mark H. Dubbin's Shadow Patriot Mark H. Dubbin, Shadow Patriot (New York: iUniverse, 2003). What makes a great piece of fiction? It is when a great storyteller is also a great writer--and unfortunately, this combination doesn't happen often enough. What is the difference between a great storyteller and a great writer? A great storyteller comes up with a yarn that holds your attention--one of those books that you can't put down, because you absolutely must know what will happen next. Sometimes you can't predict where the story is going, and sometimes you can--but even if plot elements are predictable, you do not care, because the storyline has hooked you. Michael Crichton's first novel, Andromeda Strain, is a fine example. I bought it in tenth grade, and sat down to read it one evening--and I could not put it down. I normally went to bed at 11:00 PM, but it was just too good. What would happen next? What surprise would this killer bug spring on the scientists next? How would they solve the problems? Was it extraterrestial? By the time I finished reading at 2:30 in the morning, I was exhausted--but I would have to fall asleep with the book in my hand to not finish it. Unfortunately, great storytellers are often not great writers. Great writing involves not only competence with grammar and vocabulary, but also skill in delineating characters, and describing places and things with the greatest economy of words. A great writer can also express some more subtle, hard to define aspects of a situation in subtle ways. Any writer can tell you that our hero is scared out of his wits; a great writer doesn't need to say it, because he shows you a character's fear. He describes the sweat on the hero's brow, or how the hero bites his nails, or chain smokes. Stephen King is a great storyteller, and a pretty good writer--perhaps a better writer in the early days before The Stand. James Clavell was a great storyteller, and in his first novel, King Rat, he was also a great writer. I can still recall the way in which King Rat's description of the sound, sight, and smell of a frying egg drove me to the kitchen. George Orwell's Down and Out in London and Paris describes his poverty and hunger in a way that similarly led to a most unfortunate series of events in my kitchen, late one evening. A great writer or storyteller can become a mediocre one if he tries to paint on too large a canvas. Clavell's last novel, Whirlwind, unfortunately, fell down on both counts. Whirlwind might have been a great story set against the backdrop of the Iranian Revolution, if he had stayed with ten major characters and 300 pages. Instead, it ballooned into a doorstop of a book with, it seemed, a cast of hundreds, almost all of whom became cardboard cutout figures. The temptation to write with an eye on Hollywood can also lure a good writer down the path to schlock. Characterization was certainly not a strong point of Crichton's earlier writing, but books like Jurassic Park--or almost anything by John Grisham, it seems--shows what happens when you are writing with a little too much concern about selling the movie rights. All of this is prelude to a review of a Mark Dubbin's Shadow Patriot. Dubbin is a good storyteller--not a great one, but I believe this is his first novel. I will say that while several times I considered putting it down, and finishing it in the morning (unlike Andromeda Strain), I did read it in one sitting. A three sentence plot summary would make Shadow Patriot sound predictable, even pedestrian, but I can honestly say that while there were few real plot twists, it had enough interesting quirks to keep me wondering, "What's next?" Being only 104 pages also helps; it takes a great storyteller to keep the reader enthralled for 200 pages or more. As Clint Eastwood says in Magnum Force, "A man's got to know his limitations." Dubbin has written a modest little novel, and manages to pull off the art of storytelling within that small canvas reasonably well. (If the premise of Shadow Patriot seems implausible--well, it would not be the first time that the Mafia and the U.S. government have fought a common enemy. See here.) As a reviewer on Amazon.com observed, "It would make a great screenplay." Indeed, it would, if Hollywood were prepared to make a film of something so politically incorrect. Because of Shadow Patriot's brevity, the common problem of a screenplay having to throw away subplots and characters to fit into feature film length simply isn't a problem here. Unfortunately, Dubbin is not a great writer. Indeed, there are times that I found myself groaning that his publisher did not assign an editor to correct, at a minimum, his significant problems of punctuation and the choppy, sometimes amateurish dialog. Like way too many college graduates, Dubbin appears to have serious confusion about the use of apostrophes to indicate possessive case. These are not typos, either. Quite consistently, stuff possesed by the hero Jim is "Jims," while less consistently, apostrophes are used before an "s" to indicate plural. Especially in the first three chapters, the dialog, and the verbs used to identify dialog remind me of my eighth grade Creative Writing class. These problems definitely smooth out by the end of the book, at least reaching what I would consider basic competence for a published novel--but it does seem that an editor should have gone back over those first few chapters to polish them a bit. I am pleased to report that while our hero, being single, does end up in bed with the beautiful Mafia don's daughter, at least we are not subjected to a detailed discussion of his bedroom antics. Nor does our hero engage in James Bond movie style promiscuity. The relationship between the two develops over a period of several weeks, and it is plausible. Dubbin's writing gives enough attention to the developing romance that it does not feel like an afterthought, and it suggests an adult level of understanding of romance--unlike the travesty that the various James Bond movies have made of Ian Fleming's sensitive and caring but sophisticated man of the world. Did I enjoy Shadow Patriot? Sure. Could it have been better written? Sure. Would I consider that I was overcharged if I had paid the $10.95 list price in an airport bookstore? Not really. It's still a fun read, and its writing deficiencies do not hopelessly distract from the story. The same, alas, is seldom true in the other direction: no amount of great writing can make me overlook an uninteresting story. All else being equal, I will take a competent storyteller with a few hiccups on the mechanics of writing over a skilled writer with no story worth telling. Wednesday, January 12, 2005
What a Picture! This was taken with a 10" f/9 refractor that is being auctioned off on astromart.com right now: 
I was looking at Saturn last night myself (rare clear skies over Boise), and it didn't look quite that good! :-) Oh yeah, the bidding is up to $22,000. Food Porn If the fatty, greasy Hardee's Monster Thickburger is sort of the Carol Doda of food (perhaps not an entirely worksafe picture of Ms. Doda), then what are these pictures of Sees candies? And why don't we hear more upset about these even more efficient methods of becoming obese from the food Nazis? Ballistic Fingerprinting in Maryland It's a partisan source, but I would not be surprised if it turns out to be correct: In its progress report on the Integrated Ballistics Identification System (IBIS), the Maryland State Police Forensic Sciences Division recommends that "this program be suspended, a repeal of the collection of cartridge cases from current law be enacted and the Laboratory Technicians associated with the program be transferred to the DNA database unit." So far, Maryland has spent $2.5 million over the past four years, with nothing to show for it. The report admitted, "Guns found to be used in the commission of crime…are not the ones being entered into" the system.Gee, what a surprise! Guns used by criminals usually aren't registered! UPDATE: Here's a report that finds, indeed, the Maryland government can see reality on this. Someone Is Trying To Destroy The Bill of Rights! They are trying to take freedoms out of the Bill of Rights--editing away our rights! Who is doing this awful thing? The ACLU: I saw a reference to this item on the ACLU’s web site a few months ago, but I figured it must be a typo and would be corrected shortly. But just today I saw another reference to it (on OpinionJournal), so since it’s been there that long after being pointed out in public, I’m going to assume it’s not a typo and is therefore worthy of comment.Different River goes on to point out what anyone familiar with the Bill of Rights should know--there's another freedom that really is the "first freedom mentioned in the First Amendment," and it includes a freedom that the ACLU holds in contempt: freedom to worship. A Woman's Right To Choose Different River points out that the National Organization of Women, advocates for the unlimited right of a woman to choose--have suddenly found an area where women are not allowed to choose: One example is the position of the National Organization for Women (NOW) (and lots of other people and organzations) on abortion. They and others claim to be in favor of abortion (or “abortion rights") because of the principle that “a woman has a right to control her own body.”There might be a legitimate public health argument for why abortions should be legal, and breast implants severely restricted--but that's not an argument based on the fundamental principle of a "woman's right to choose." If the argument for why some law should or should not be passed is actually a matter of a high principle, then that principle should generally apply. But it is a lot more attractive to sell a matter of preference as a fundamental human right. I don't dispute that there are fundamental human rights--indeed, quite a number of them. I do expect people that raise a particular idea to the state of "fundamental human right" to follow it somewhat consistently, however. I am hard pressed to see why a woman doesn't have the right to have a breast implant (for which there is no question as to whether another human life is involved), but does have a right to have a doctor gouge out a fetus's brain with scissors, two weeks before a natural birth. Labels: abortion A Million Dollars Isn't What It Used To Be TaxProf mentions a recent survey of wealthy people found that even among those with net assets exceeding $10 million: 29% say "having a lot of money brings more problems than it solves"Well, pretty obviously, to that 29% who say that it brings more problems than it solves: I'll be glad to help you out! More seriously, when my father-in-law worked in the food service business in Hawaii, he got to know a guy who was a big restauranteur, originally from Hong Kong. One day, my father-in-law asked this guy, "You own all these restaurants, and you obviously are very wealthy. Why do you drive an old car and wear the clothes you do?" This guy's answer is a chilling reminder of what real wealth (the kind that I don't have) brings you: "In Hong Kong, if you are very wealthy, criminals kidnap your children and hold them for ransom." Generally, kidnap for ransom has become rare in the United States these last few years, since drug dealing is more profitable and with lower risk, but there are just enough reminders that this could happen, like the 1992 kidnapping of Charles Geschke, president of Adobe Systems at the time. There's another part of TaxProf's rather sardonic posting, however, that I think show a little misunderstanding of how little a million dollars really is: The survey also reveals that people feel they need to double their wealth in order "to feel financially secure":Sure, some of this is the "you never have enough" problem. There's a marvelously funny description in Tom Wolfe's Bonfire of the Vanities of how the protagonist is hemorrhaging money on a million dollars a year income. A lot of things that seem like insane extravagances when you make $12 an hour seem like absolute necessities at that level of income. But realistically, what does a million dollars in net worth really mean? The original Superman series with George Reeves had a very funny episode where Jimmy Olsen, boy reporter, receives a million dollars. Clark Kent goes to visit him in his penthouse, and asks how things are for the "other half." Of course, a million dollars in the late 1950s was something that you could live on very nicely, and never touch the interest. The equivalent today would about three to four million dollars. For lots of people, a big chunk of a million dollar net worth is equity in their homes. In California, a person who has lived in the same house for twenty years may have $500,000 in equity--and yet, if he or she is still dependent on a job for income, he may not be able to realize those assets, because the only places that he can move have comparably insane housing costs. For a lot of small businessmen, they may own a business that is worth $500,000--but it requires substantial management to keep it operational. Selling such a business is often a difficult and sometimes risky action. Even if you have one million dollars in liquid assets, the chances are excellent that you can't live off of it. Relatively low risk investment (investment grade corporate bonds) will only provide about $70,000-$80,000 a year in income. If you are single, or the kids are grown, you can live comfortably on that in many parts of the United States. You can't raise a family on that very well, especially once you leave your employer, and have to pay for health insurance at private rates. I am not asking you to feel sorry for the person with a net worth of a million dollars--it is certainly better than having no net worth, or more typical of many Americans, tens of thousands of dollars in the red--but I do want you to realize that the concerns that TaxProf mentions are not as silly as they sound. I Wish That I Had A Job That Let Me Eat This Burger Daniel Drezner has a picture of what the leftist screechers are calling "Food Porn": Hardee's Monster Thickburger, which has way more meat on it than Cubans are rationed each month. Is this an absurd meal? Yes. (But perhaps we should make the Cubans see what our evil capitalist system makes available to the masses.) It looks absolutely mouth watering. I wish that I had a job that burned so many calories that I could enjoy something like this without guilt. If I ate a sandwich like this with any regularity, I would start to have the same width to height ratio as the sandwich. My father, when he was working as a welder in the middle of the Mojave Desert, would lose weight on 5000 calories a day. (He would climb 195 feet up a ladder, carrying all of his welding equipment, in 100 degree weather. No whining about your job, please.) For the vast majority of Americans who don't burn 5000+ calories a day, this is definitely one of those sandwiches that you should enjoy annually, if at all. I must confess that while I understand the public health concerns of the food Nazis, such as the Center for Science in the Public Interest, they also need to lighten up, and stop berating Hardee's for offering it. There are people who can eat these every day and not gain a pound--like my teenaged son. Instead, the food Nazis (and perhaps even the government) should be running public awareness campaigns about the importance of eating in moderation. Gluttony (of which consuming the Monster Thickburger could be legitimately accused) has traditionally been recognized as a sin, and with good reason. Good Financial News That I Missed Well, good news for most Americans, but not so good for me: WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. government ran a $1 billion budget surplus in December, helped by a rise in corporate tax payments, the Congressional Budget Office said in its latest budget report released on Friday.Obviously, December isn't a typical month, and we'll go back to running deficits for January, but still, it's a good sign. I was really, really hoping that raging deficits would get interests to spike, but this news is part of why 30 year Treasurys are now yielding about 4.77% as of 2:00 PM today--not a great return. Still, it's good for the economy as a whole, for Americans who have mortgages, and Americans who work in interest rate sensitive industries (which is almost all manufactured goods that cost more than a few hundred dollars). It also lets me delay starting construction on the wife's dream home a bit longer, since I won't have any pressure to lock in the rates. Thanks to Instapundit and Gay Patriot for the pointer. Interesting Documentary On Nova Last Night About Piltdown Man As many of you know, "Piltdown Man" was one of the pieces of evidence for evolution, as soon as it was discovered in 1912. As many of you also know, in 1953, it was demonstrated to be a fraud--not a mistake, but an intentional fraud. Nova had a segment on "The Boldest Hoax" last night about the fraud, and the evidence that even many scientists knew, or strongly suspected, that it was a fraud from the beginning. Among other things, they showed a letter from about 1916 in which one prominent scientist, Martin Hinton, wrote a letter to an American paleontologist who was skeptical about the Piltdown Man skull, and agreed that there was good reason to be skeptical. They showed evidence that for many decades before the hoax was publicly exposed in 1953, many scientists were privately guessing who manufactured the fraud--and yet, no one spoke up. Best of all, they showed another artifact found at Piltdown in 1915 that, in the words of one person they interviewed, was obviously a bone cricket bat--so obviously so that it would appear whoever planted it was trying to expose the credulity of the scientists involved. No matter; the same bunch that believed that Piltdown Man was a "missing link" went ahead and published work about this bone implement. It makes you wonder how many scientists today may have some questions or concerns about the Revealed Truth of Darwinian evolution, but are reluctant to say anything, for the same reason that a lot of scientists who knew that Piltdown Man was a fraud, but said nothing. Dishonesty A friend pointed me to this purported family tree of the Bush family, showing them all to be criminals and low lifes. But when I started checking some of the claims? Prescott Bush (George Sr.'s father) is described as "had business dealings with his good friend--Adolph Hitler." Here's how the Guardian--no friend to conservatives or the Bush family--described the evidence: While there is no suggestion that Prescott Bush was sympathetic to the Nazi cause, the documents reveal that the firm he worked for, Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), acted as a US base for the German industrialist, Fritz Thyssen, who helped finance Hitler in the 1930s before falling out with him at the end of the decade. The Guardian has seen evidence that shows Bush was the director of the New York-based Union Banking Corporation (UBC) that represented Thyssen's US interests and he continued to work for the bank after America entered the war.Laura Bush is described as "manslaughter! Killed an ex-boyfriend." But Snopes.com tells us it was a traffic accident in which she was badly hurt, and someone in the other car was killed. No charges were filed. As usual, the left can't do anything but falsify. EBay Is Amazing! The bidding on that HP-27 box and manual that I put up there a few days ago has reached $76--and we aren't even half-done! Monday, January 10, 2005
Reasons To Keep Your Guns Secured... Of course, this article is also a reason to be armed when returning home--but that option isn't realistically available to residents of California, is it? Dennis James Conrad came home for lunch Friday to find a burglary in progress in his Arden Park home and probably was shot in the back with his own handgun as he tried to flee, according to the crime scenario Sacramento County sheriff's officials pieced together Saturday.In spite of all the hype from gun control advocates about the dangers of walking in on a burglar who has armed himself with a gun from your residence, I can't recall the last time that I read an account like this. The HP Calculator Museum I mentioned yesterday that I was looking for some collector to buy an HP-27 box and manual that I had lying around. The bidding, as of this hour, is up to $24.50. A couple of readers told me about the HP Calculator Museum, where I just placed a classified ad alerting the collectors there to my eBay ad. I'll be curious to see what the eBay bidding gets up to now! Oh yeah, in my collection of bizarre stuff is Theodor H. Nelson's Computer Lib (first edition) from 1974--sort of a left-wing, New Age computer manifesto. I guess that goes up on eBay next. UPDATE: I see that even 1980s editions of Computer Lib are priced by used booksellers well above $200--and this is a first edition, apparently third printing. It is not like new, but the wear is confined to the cover, and in surprisingly good shape for a large format paperback book. Except for a little oxidized brown on the edges, the interior pages are in perfect shape. (I never read it.) Can anyone suggest what the best way is to find a seller for this? I suspect that eBay might not be the optimal way to get top dollar for this. CBS & The Fraudulent Air National Guard Memos I'm sure you've seen the news by now: CBS fired four people for running a story based on obviously fraudulent documents--and then defending it even when it became apparent that these "1973" memos were composed in Microsoft Word. What I find amusing is the CBS report that maintains that this was not a problem of political bias, but just sloppy journalism and the desire to be first with the story. Then they make this amazing statement: The panel identified 10 serious defects in the preparation and reporting of the story that included failure to obtain clear authentication of the documents or to investigate the controversial background of the source of the purported documents, retired Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Bill Burkett.How good to know that this was only the appearance of political bias. Really? The report made a number of recommendations, all of them good and sensible, but left out the one change that would most likely prevent this sort of problem in the future: diversity in the newsroom. If even 20% of CBS journalists were conservatives (or, to put it another way, if less than 70% of journalists were liberals or progressives), one of them would have looked at these memos and perhaps for partisan reasons asked, "How sure are we that these memos are real?" Because journalism is completely dominated by liberals and progressives, there's no one asking those questions when stuff like this pops up attacking Republicans. Chevrolet Pursuing Performance A lot of enthusiasts turned up their noses at the latest Impala SS, because it was not only front wheel drive, but used a turbocharged 3.8 liter V6. The 2006 Impala SS is still front wheel drive, but now has a 303 horsepower 5.3 liter V8. I don't know what the 2006 Impala SS weighs (the current version must weigh about 3500 pounds, based on what my 2000 Impala LS weighed), but as long as it isn't any heavier, it ought to compare favorably on acceleration and top speed to the 1996 Chevrolet Impala SS. I notice that it has W speed rated tires--intended for prolonged use at 168 miles per hour. I guess this means that it doesn't have a speed governor, unlike many BMWs sold in the U.S. The other performance news is for those of you who look down your nose at the 2006 Corvette for only have 400 horsepower in a 3100 pound car. The Z06 option has been announced: a 427 cubic inch small block V8 with 500 horsepower; dry sump oil system (since we know you are going to be hitting the >1 g lateral acceleration a lot; and a functional hood scoop; carbon fiber front fender flares; and tires with sizes so exotic it makes my wallet hurt just to think about: 275/35ZR-18 and 325/30ZR-19. No, I'm not planning on buying either one, unless advertising revenue on this blog goes up rather more dramatically than I find likely. Sunday, January 09, 2005
This Is a Long Shot Do you know someone who collects vintage HP calculators? I used to have an HP-27 calculator; like a lot of them, the batteries failed, and the recharger built into the calculator didn't do much better. I gave it away to a collector of antiques several years back, not realizing that, like all things that were once common and useless, there would be collectors paying too much money for them. But I still have the original box (a little worn and dusty), and the original manual, which was never used--why? The HP-27 used RPN, and was as simple and easy to use as a calculator could be. Obviously, I don't need the box or manual now, and I don't collect stuff like this. (I have already far too much junk that I don't need.) I've listed it on eBay, so if you know of a collector of such stuff, let them know to look here if they are interested. 
Another Winner I had posted my review of the Aries Chromacor corrector for converting achromatic refractors into apochromats (or so close that you don't much care) on astromart.com a while back; I just won the $50 store credit for the best review of the week. Labels: telescopes Ignorance Is Wonderful, Isn't It? Marvelous description of jackasses mouthing off, and someone responding: On Christmas Day, a disaster visited the human race. Hundreds of thousands of people, quietly living their lives on the edge of the sea were killed. They were killed, not by suicide bombers or suitcase nukes or crazed men hijacking planes into buildings. They were killed with simple seawater. Those that were killed werent just simple minded fools who wandered lemming like out into the unusually low tide, only to be mowed down by the sudden flood. They were people enjoying the sights from the second story of a hotel when the ocean rose up to engulf them. The horror of it all hasnt even begun to sink in to most of us. Junk Mail I've complained about the problems of junk mail for some time--but the problem is far worse than I realized. I was starting to get warnings about my mailbox being 90% full, and I didn't see why. It turns out that associated with my domain is a Postmaster email account, where all the undeliverable email goes. If you send email to an invalid user name on my domain, it goes into the Postmaster account. I don't know that I have looked into the Postmaster mailbox since I set up this domain, but there were more than 11,000 pieces of email there, and this was getting me perilously close to the 100 MB limit for all mailboxes in my domain. A few hundred pieces seem to be legitimate email that for some reason went astray, but the rest of is in the following two categories: 1. Stuff that is bouncing back to me because someone sent email with forged headers so that it appeared to be coming from a bogus user ID on the claytoncramer.com domain. 2. Stuff addressed to random named user IDs on the claytoncramer.com domain. Much of the email in both of these categories contains viruses. Norton Antivirus is catching it, removing the attached viruses, and telling me about it. Unfortunately, it takes a long time to download 11,000 pieces of email, especially since most of them have sizeable attachments. There doesn't seem to be any way to just empty out the mailbox without actually downloading (at least, not that I have found so far), so it just takes a lot of time. Some of this garbage is several years old, which is part of why there are so many emails, but I can see from the time stamps that there are several new ones arriving every minute. I am enraged by the enormous waste of time and resources that the spammers and virus writers are imposing on the world. Ten year prison sentences? Perfectly reasonable, as far as I am concerned. UPDATE: I figured out how to throw away all those emails without downloading all of them. I used a web mail interface, and then constructed a couple of rules for throwing away just about everything in the inbox, without having to download them. Much faster. I still haven't figured out how to discard all email to invalid user IDs, but at least I won't have 11,000 messages sitting there, gobbling up disk space. |
